What's coming? Speculation on where BJD design will go in the future

[Cynthia]

The realism thread got me to thinking . . . where do you all think BJD sculpting and body design are headed, over the next five years? I think I see three big trends that have come together in the past couple of years: greater portrait-style realism in headmolds; more and more complicated jointing; and bigger/taller bodies.

Do you think these trends can go much further, or is there a market (or manufacturing technology) wall looming in the distance?

Are there other trends in sculpting and design that you're noticing, and where do you think they're headed?

[honeyedbiscuit]

To be brief, I fear that ball-jointed dolls will end up being expensive resin fashion dolls.

Fashion dolls aren't bad, but they aren't the dolls that I've come to love in this hobby!

[Wotan]

Do you think these trends can go much further, or is there a market (or manufacturing technology) wall looming in the distance?
I think-- rather, I hope-- that the trend towards bigger dolls levels out, and soon. It's silly, but I'm trying to operate on the 1:3 scale "standard" for my SD-sized dolls. I'm never going to end up with a Dollshe doll, and I'm seriously resisting getting a Model girl, just because it's too disruptive to the consistency of scale I'm trying to establish with my collection. I really, really wanted to get an SD16 girl body for June, because she's supposed to be around 6'2". At a 1:3 scale, it works out perfectly. Bigger dolls mess that up-- either there's a lot of 7' or more people hanging around, or by necessity June can't be 6'2".

I imagine certain established, accepted market pressures will keep dolls in a certain size range-- interchangeability of clothes, wigs, and the like being foremost among those. Also, I think bigger dolls would just begin to get unmanageable, either to carry their heavy resin butts around (you think Hound is a fatty? I can't imagine a Soom Sabik! :o) or to work with.

Not so much to say about the more detailed sculpts. I think there's a market for those; only time will tell how much of one. It'll level out, I think.


Are there other trends in sculpting and design that you're noticing, and where do you think they're headed?
I'm noticing a trend towards more ethnic dolls. Iplehouse is ahead of the game here, with offerings like Cocori and Aaron; recent additions such as Harin and Ryushin also present a defined ethnicity. Volks is offering a new, darker skin tone, at least for Ruby. Rainman has been doing distinctively ethnic sculpts for a while now-- Soah, K, and Mir. I think we're headed towards more and more options beyond just "European-ish" and "Asian-ish".

[Mid]

I feel an echo of the fear honeyedbiscuit expressed. I fear BJD will go more and more fashion doll. I really wish that there was at least one more anime-like (for lack of a better term) being released at the LA Dolpa.

Though I fear this, I don't things will really change. I think all we'll see is more and more companies doing molds in both styles.

[Cynthia]

(you think Hound is a fatty? I can't imagine a Soom Sabik! :o)

Hee! It isn't the weight that's the problem, as much as the flailing limbs . . . ;)

[zalem]

To be brief, I fear that ball-jointed dolls will end up being expensive resin fashion dolls.

Fashion dolls aren't bad, but they aren't the dolls that I've come to love in this hobby!

That's exactly what I think. More and more dolls are being produced that have a distinctly fashion doll look and it will only continue. And you're right, fashion dolls can be very lovely in their own right, however, I collect these dolls for something quite different. So I'm not sure where that'll leave me. Suppose I'll fade out of the hobby by then. Then again there might still be companies out there producing BJD in the style I know and love. At least I hope so.

[Ridgeway]

I don't find the fashion doll trend as alarming as the cheap Chinese trend. It's all well and good if the visual aesthetic expands to include more styles, but it's the degredation of the quality and care put into manufacturing that I find offputting. The sheer number of times I've seen "expensive" Delf heads stuck on a Chinese body because the owner couldn't afford a complete Delf is rather shocking. I worry that smaller studios will see their business continue to dwindle until they simply don't get enough orders to make it worth their time.
I think the larger studios will continue to improve their engineering, but the ones who will continue to succeed will be the ones who remember that these are dolls rather than action figures. They will probably not get any bigger or heavier than they already are.

[Tuvie]

I've been noticing a lot of exaggerated proportions in newer head molds. I know, most BJDs have that feature anyway (enlarged eyes, etc.), but there's a different look and style to it that I can't put my finger on. Lots of longer faces and eyes closer together for one . . . maybe it's something that won't stick around, but it's a small trend I've taken note of.

I also think we're all seeing the trend toward less expensive options. I don't think that's what is meant by BJDs becoming more fashion doll-ish though, right? I definitely think the hobby will become more accessible to more people in the future as BJDs become more well-known and there is more demand for them, but in the end I think most companies will continue to produce our dolls to the same high-quality standards and with the aesthetic we love them for.

[CHISATO]

I think the larger studios will continue to improve their engineering, but the ones who will continue to succeed will be the ones who remember that these are dolls rather than action figures. They will probably not get any bigger or heavier than they already are.

You say that but the "fie" in dollfie stands for figure, as in doll-figure. I don't see how that mentaility would help a company succeed. It comes to the fact if they can follow the flow of the market and keep their customers happy above all else which would lead them to succeed or not.

I think that the phase of cheaper dolls will level out, people pay for quality because they want their doll to have longevity. Barbie dolls are cheap because they are made cheap. Not all expensive doll companies are necesarily using better materials/practices but some are. Sure some people will go for the cheaper doll but I think that thats about even for the people who will pay for more because they know they are getting more.

[Obscurity]

I actually kind of have a different view of where things are going down the road, but I'm probably wrong.

A big part of my fandom is the anime convention culture - I go to about 5 a year or so and I love to cosplay like I know a lot of other doll owners do. And when I first got into the hobby, I made the argument that there could be NO way that BJDs would become a mainstream part of the convention lifestyle - simply because they were so expensive and at the time, very hard to actually buy.

Clearly, I had no idea what the convention culture would evolve too. Now it's literally impossible to go to even the SMALLEST of conventions without seeing at least a handful of BJD, usually more. Dolls have become such a HUGE phenomenon in the American anime community, I can only imagine that, eventually, there will come a crash - Which is not to say that I think that BJDs will completely and totally lose their hold on the subcultures of the US, but I can only imagine something getting so big before it has to eventually get smaller.

I guess the point I'm trying to make is that, I think a lot of the US fandom has been caught up in the "fad" of BJDs, and once that 'fad' period passes, I think the real future of the hobby will become infinitely more clear. I think right now, companies and the like are producing things -for- their market, via the laws of supply and demand, which currently has been leaning more towards the 'bigger, better, newer' feeling - Like every doll that comes out has to have some kind of 'hook' seperate from it's face mold or skin tone - Jointed fingers, ridiculous size, new body systems etc etc etc.

Not that any of these things are bad - but I think once the hysteria calms down, things will get back to being about the actual dolls rather than how companies can set themselves apart from one another.

x_x Maybe none of that makes any sense. *Shuts up*

[nakitama]

No, obscurity, that made perfect sense!! And I think you're absolutely right!! I hadn't thought of that myself, but I believe you're totally correct. :3

[halfling]

I hope that there aren't more and more anorexic looking dolls. As long as that trend doesn't continue, there's always going to at least one head mold I like.

I'm guessing the trend is going to go towards better posing.

[girlwholived]

Everyone went to the points that I think:

Volks - Leaning more towards fashion doll. This concerns me.

CP - longer faces, eyes closer to together. Just plain disturbing.

Taller dolls: Um. No thank you.

[bunnydots]

I think it's going to go down two different paths. One would be the mass-produced dolls, which I too think will involve more fashion-doll looks because that's what sells to the masses. It's also really easy to sell a lot of clothing and accessories for such a doll, and provides a good crossover with non-resin doll markets.

At the same time I think artists will start to produce smaller runs of more realistic dolls, and that is where the more serious collectors and those interested in dolls other than fashion dolls will begin to turn for their doll needs.

I also think better posing, and better looking joints, will continue to be a key factor for all of these dolls, since so many collectors enjoy photographing the dolls and expect them to be able to hold a pose and look good.

[littlepinkfaery]

As an owner of a chinese 'cheap' doll I have to disagree, their quality is actually quite good. Certainly bettee than I expected for the price. Yes there is a difference between him and my Volks doll but the quality for the price is excellent.

that, in a way, is more of a worry. If companies can produce good quality dolls cheaply what might it do to the 'bigger players' in this market? Will they be forced to cut prices and/or quality? Or will there become a bigger elitist market with 'expensive' and 'cheap' doll owners fighting their own corner? This could cause much more friction in the fandom and cause people to become disillusioned.

With regards to the dolls themselvs, I hope they don't become to fashion doll like- I love the anime style dolls ( I have a nono) There are a lot of mean faced, serious dolls around at the moment and I persoanlly don't like them looking too life like. I am liking, however, more ethnic dolls. I would like a Japanese looking girl, or cherokee- skin tones not just face structure.

I think the craze will die down soon and we will see some (more) doll companies close, but I do see a big 'face off' between expensive dolls and cheap ones ( well,the owners. not the dolls!).

[Catrina]

I heard that in Asia, they are all trying to figure out what the next trend is too.

BJD sales are down domestically in Asia.

There are so many fashion dolls out there already, personally I'd be disappointed if they went that way.

Something I love about the BJD's is how they grab you in the heart with their expressions. There is room for the quirky, the funky, the futuristic... where angels and demons can play side by side.

This whole issue is very difficult. It plays with the emotions. Of course all things evolve.

If the new trend were a style I didn't feel a deep connection to, that would be incredibly difficult to face. There are artists who understand the language of dolls, and the emotional connection they create to the heart. I will try to keep my faith in them, and hope their new trends still work the old magic.

[greeniebone]

I think the next few years will show an influx of talented new doll companies popping up outside of Asia, whether in America, Europe or beyond. I also foresee less of a stigma being attached to owning non-Asian resin BJDs.

I do also foresee an influx of doll collectors from the Fashion Doll and other doll communities, but I think the core base of BJD collectors will remain fairly intact.

[St. James]

I think the larger studios will continue to improve their engineering, but the ones who will continue to succeed will be the ones who remember that these are dolls rather than action figures.

Something I love about the BJD's is how they grab you in the heart with their expressions. There are artists who understand the language of dolls, and the emotional connection they create to the heart.

Ah, these are the two halves of the concept. Yes, Dollfie means Doll + Figure, but figures are what amounts to decorative toys whereas dolls have centuries worth of tradition behind them as objects of emotional attachment.
Remember when the action figure market exploded with Todd McFarlane stuff? It was all about how many points of articulation they could cram into one figure. The first doll that comes to mind when thinking about engineering gone crazy is the Nobility Ryoma (sp?) with the tilting neck and squishy nipples. :| This sort of "innovation" really only seems calculated to attract buyers out of novelty. As the BJD buying frenzy slows, all of this kind of thing will fall by the wayside. I just hope the really talented sculptors don't get discouraged in the meantime. The economy is taking a serious nosedive, so it's not hard to guess how that will influence a luxury/art market. In short, buy now! You never know what will happen tomorrow. :XD

[Jinxferen]

Robots!

...what? I can't be the only one who's read Angelic Layer and daydreamed. :p

Seriously though, like littlepinkfaery, I'd also love to see more variety in the faces of dolls, that draws influence from other ethnicities. Different body shapes too. For example, after the release of the SD16 boy I had hoped to see more boys with thicker, more muscular bodies, rather than more "tall and skinny" dolls.

I also hope to see a rise in doll companies outside of East Asia. Not just the fans who sculpt their own dolls and are maybe able to cast and sell a few when they can, but American and European artists who establish their own companies and sell their dolls professionally. That would be really cool, I think.

[Lolly]

All very interesting! I cannot say what the future will be.
I myself have enough dolls now that I am more interested in parts than the whole. Better hands, eyes, a new faceup, interchangeable faceplates, stuff like that.
Outfittting a whole new size really keeps me from buying the larger dolls.

[syrinx]

I don't find the fashion doll trend as alarming as the cheap Chinese trend. It's all well and good if the visual aesthetic expands to include more styles, but it's the degredation of the quality and care put into manufacturing that I find offputting.

I will both agree and diagree with that. I had an Abio Angel pass through my hands and I now own a B&G doll. They are both cheaper Chinese companies. I purchased them not because of the price, but because the mold was what I was looking for in my next doll. The AA, I was highly disappointed by the lack of quality in the sculpting. The B&G I am very impressed with. A lot of care was taken in the sculpture and manufacturing of that doll and I would say it's almost comparable to my CP's both in resin quality and general aesthetic. Not quite, but almost. I think it depends on the company more than the price and country of origin.

As for the future, I see a lot more fashion dolls, which I find disappointing as it's not what I feel these dolls are about. I also see a growth in more ethnic molds and skin tones, which I view as a positive thing even if I don't end up purchasing any. Ultimately, it will bring more choices, which has been the trend I've seen for the past few years I've been in the hobby.

[jaeninha]

I think you make a very valid point there, Obscurity. Is a bit alarming (at least for me) how things work when the "fad" is what drives the companies to mass produce.
I still remember when companies could still be counted with the fingers and sculpts' styles were still recognizable (at least for me). A year and so passes and there are more companies and more sculpts that I can't keep up with all of them; new dolls are mass released in one shot (and a brand new doll is suddenly 'sacrificed' and sold to get the new one and so on and so forth).

Competition is tight right now, specially with the more cheaper alternatives, which makes the more veteran companies start cooking up new ideas that may or may not appeal to the veteran fans out there. We have much bigger dolls and much smaller dolls too.

I'm not saying this as a bad thing; I actually think that the more variety, the better it will accommodate people's tastes and demands. There's less of a monopoly right now, which is also good, but there's a downside to everything: the more there is out there, the more will companies feel forced to strive for that "something different".

Personally, I don't mind much how design is evolving; is always nice to see something new come out. I'm more concerned about the fast and tiring pace at which things are going now. The faster something rises, the faster it falls; this is already a fact about everything out there nowadays.

Sorry if this came out a bit off-topic. :sweat

[nikita]

I have to say that I don't mind that some bjd companies are making dolls with a more fashion doll look. For me, I am intrigued by their asian asetethic take on the fashion doll look itself. The Volks sd16 doll bodies are gorgeous! I would love to own one tho I'm not too keen on some of the rather masculine-looking face molds.

While more companies may be creating fashion doll types, I don't think they are going to completely stop creating regular bjds.

[Cynthia]

Everyone has such interesting things to say--I hope more people chime in! And I'm glad to see that Wotan started a thread discussing what "fashion doll" means, in relation to BJDs . . . because I was about to throw that idea into the mix of this conversation.

[Angma Suzy]

I heard that in Asia, they are all trying to figure out what the next trend is too. BJD sales are down domestically in Asia.

Our economy is dead right now. Very, very dead.

I started to write an extremely long response before I realized I was talking about the evolution of the BJD market and communities and not design (which is the actual topic) so I scratched that. Perhaps to be discussed in another thread.

Re: actual topic. The fashion-dollification of BJDs is rather blatant, isn't it. I think this is the results of the changing market - more and more of the general public is becoming interested in BJDs, those who are interested in 'pretty dolls' more so than certain 'characters' that were the main interest factor of the early adopter crowd.

BJD designs will eventually become more and more diverse. I personally adore the Russian BJD makers Mooqla (http://www.mooqla.com), they are very unique and different from what you see from Korean and Japanese dollmakers. I see more and more American companies popping up, and Europe will probably be jumping on the bandwagon as well. (After all, isn't the BJD's origins in Europe?) China will be a powerhouse to contend with as well.

I am looking forward to the diversity. As long as dollmakers remain true to their styles and not all do the same thing at once. Despite the fashion doll phenomenon, I don't think the characterized versions will die out.

And as with Elfdoll's new cute piggy, I'm predicting more and more collaborations with illustrators and BJD companies in the future.

[Bel]

I think Obscurity made a lot of great points.

Part of me thinks the bubble may be about to burst - it's harder to resell dolls now, judging by how long dolls are on the marketplace and how rare dolls priced reasonably don't get any bites. There are also signs of some turnover in that rare, coveted molds are appearing for sale at *all,* when a year ago you'd never have been able to find one, much less buy it for its original retail price.

The rise in popularity of artist's heads is directly related to their price and easier availability - artists are less afraid to deal with overseas customers now, it seems, and more and more have been partnering with distributors (outside of the biggies like Luts and Dollmore.) I, for one, LOVE this - partly because it's easier for me to get the heads I want, and partly because I love being able to express my thanks and admiration directly to the sculptors.

If the resin quality and form/engineering of lower-cost Chinese-produced bodies are comparable to, or better than, the bodies that cost two or three times as much, we may see a push by companies toward lower-cost bodies across the board & an expansion of available heads with a broader range of designs. I do a fair amount of body-swapping because I can't resist this or that head, but though I have high-end bodies right now, I'm leaning towards picking up a couple of Chinese bodies just to get it over with & get my rolling heads their own set of arms & legs.

Edited because I forgot to wrap this up to address the point of the thread: I *hope* that the next big thing, beyond anime faces, realistic faces, and fashion-doll faces, will be artist's heads, or at least a broader range of the kind of faces that people either outright love or think are fug-city.

[saranilla]

If the trend toward fashion dolls continues there will be a market for them. There always has been.

But there will still be the other anime style dolls and the more realistic face dolls. The market will make the decision which companies will continue and which will fail. We all have different preferences and will choose what we like. And hooray for that since who would want everyone to have only one or two dolls to choose from like in the beginning.

We in the marketplace will eventually dictate what the BJD will become. These companies more than any other seem to respond quickly to what their customer likes or dislikes.

[Shizen]

I'm glad people have more choices nowadayswhen it comes to BJDs. The cost to purchase an "economy" model SD-sized doll has taken a dive in the recent months; I just hope the quality hasn't taken a similar plunge. I have only handled Volks and CP dolls so far, so I don't think I can make a fair assessment of the products of the new Chinese and Korean companies.

I know it may sound a tad callous towards people with tight budgets, but I don't really want BJDs to be any cheaper; I want them to be better.

What I'd really like to see in the coming months/years would be:

1. improved engineering of doll bodies (poseability, articulation, balance, etc.)

2. further development of materials and manufacturing processes (consistent colour/texture, more durable parts, faster production time, etc.)

3. more customizeability options that can be implemented by the everyday hobbyist (let your imagination free on this one)

4. better e-commerce websites; more payment options; less ackward English

[Bandwidth Broad]

I have no idea what to expect -- the hobby has already taken turns I would not have expected. My suspicion is that the bjd market, as is the case with so many other commodities, will have rather large ebbs and flows. It is my sincere hope that we don't have a "beanie baby" kind of evolution here where, "in the beginning," everybody wants everything and, once the market has matured (and the consumers), suddenly there is no desire any more.

The best thing to keep in mind is that these should not be viewed as investments. One man's [sic] treasure is another's garbage (yes, the inversion and change were deliberate). Buy something because you love it, not because you think it may be worth a fortune somewhere down the road.

Personally, I'd love to see continued evolutions in jointing and manufacture, and an increased ability to purchase spare parts, such as hands and feet.

[joey]

I really think there'll be a balkanization of the bjd world. That part of the hobby will become more fashion doll oriented, another more price conscious and another will become collectors of the unique and probably more high end part of the hobby.

At a doll show yesterday I saw the new supposedly ball jointed tonner doll. And I really thought they were trying to be the *missing link*. Not to make to much a value judgement on them, they did seem more dolly.

I'm sure there is room for all, perhaps not together.

[TammyTammy]

To echo some of the other posters here, I see BJDs going into the very realistic looking fashion doll style in SD size and larger. But I also see a whole army of cherubic-looking tinies with pointy ears and pouty faces cropping up too. It all seems to be going that way anyway.

[Tereya Chan]

Well, I know there are some things that I don't really want to see happen. I was really happy to see the release of the Unoa Zero not only because I think they're gorgeous but because I love the hands on approach those dolls require. I really don't want to lose the customization aspect of this hobby. I love seeing people take a doll and make it something their own. So, as people have mentioned with the figure aspect of Doll + Fie, I love the figure side of it. To me these dolls are action figures in a way.

I do see a continued trend towards more "realistic" styles of dolls, though I'm not a fan of that word since I think that there will never be a majority of dolls that resemble anything realistic. The popularity of CP dolls emphasizes this to me.

I do think there'll be a slow down. When I came into the hobby I think things were really starting to rev up. New companies have been popping up everywhere, companies are trying new gimmicks, sales, promotions all to attract new markets. I do believe in the notion of market saturation in this hobby which is why I think there has been an explosion of variety amongst companies and sculpts. My hope is that there will be a push towards continued variety so that all fans of all aspects can enjoy their preferences, though I understand companies switching over to what they deem will please the majority.

[Cynthia]

We in the marketplace will eventually dictate what the BJD will become. These companies more than any other seem to respond quickly to what their customer likes or dislikes.

This point really hit home with me--it reminded me (all over again) just how small most of the BJD makers' operations are. They can be nimble and responsive to buyers' interests (compared to big factory operations), because they're working on an artisan scale of production, not a mechanized assembly-line one. I'd like to think that bodes well for the survival of more BJD artists in the longer term--especially those who don't depend entirely on BJDs to make a living.

And I'd also like to think that the survival of more BJD artists = the possibility of greater variety and more experimentation, even if it's on a small-production scale, instead of more and more "standardization" for a mass market. This may be wishful thinking, but I hope not.

[feral5]

In my personal experiences throughout the community as a whole, I've noticed a trend of realistic dolls more then anything. Doll molds ARE becoming more realistic, because that seems to be what the consumers want at this moment in time. I see this most with companies like Unidoll and their gorgeous molds, and even smaller companies like Migidoll who have become insanely popular in a short amount of time.

There was also just a big boom in companies to fill the niche market of doll owners who wanted far more mature bodies for their boys, and now I do see a bit leaning towards a Fashion doll look with Volks' new girls (I was shocked by how much they looked like fashion dolls when I saw them!) and CP's new ladies as well who have slender, elegant limbs in this style.

I'm honestly very excited by this. When there's a new aesthetic introduced into this hobby, there are always customizers/seamstresses ready to fill in the gaps and create some BEAUTIFUL dolls.

[rkold]

As someone who still dabbles a bit in fashion dolls, I would argue that not all fashion dolls use the same aesthetic. ^^;; To me, I see a lot more similarities in the face of Volks' Jun Tachibana and a Takara Jenny than I see between Takara Jenny and any of the new SD-16 dolls.

Rather, I would argue that companies, particularly when targeting a US audience seem to be assuming to get more US buyers they need to make dolls in either a more realistic or a more traditional Western fashion doll aesthetic. Olivia, Garnet and Ruby have all been released for the US market specifically NOT the Japanese one.

In contrast in Japan, March 2007 saw the re-release of MSD Nagisa (who is definitely more on the anime side) and the new F-32 Sato FCS head mold. The Rozen twins of the May 2007 Dolpa certainly had an anime aesthetic being based on anime characters as well.

I think Volks is hoping to cash in on the much larger numbers of US Barbie collectors, but that could just be me.

For trends, I unfortunately see more companies going under. As the economy goes downhill, I think it will be harder for people to afford dolls and particularly dolls with pricey shipping from countries half way around the globe.

I see more market segmentation, as companies attempt to target specific audiences with their releases.

[Soula]

I'm really bad at predictions, as I would/could never have predicted the current popularity, when I first started looking at Super Dollfies, now six years ago...

I can only hope (as a collector of various dolls) there will continue to be somewhat stylised, somewhat cute, funny, quirky and strange, off-the-beaten-track-faces available out there.
Because extreme feminine beauty/manly coolness/perfection are fine and probably sell better, but.. shall we say, seem less adventurous? (JMHO)

[Pooki]

I think we'll see more realistic dolls and more "fashion-oriented" dolls. I like more realism in dolls.

I'm "iffy" on "fashion" dolls. I put "fashion" in quotes because I disagree with the interpretations of "fashion" dolls that I've seen to date. The new Volks SD16 seem to have a consensus of being more "fashion-oriented". I've seen other dolls that companies have made that are meant to be fashion dolls. The complaint that I have with these interpretations that I've seen so far is that they're all very severe looking---as if that's what people see as being fashionable. I find that baffling as most fashion models are not at all severe looking. They usually either have extremely interesting features or else rather bland faces that lend themselves well to makeup/hair, etc.

So that's my one complaint about more "fashion" bjd. I think you can have fashionable proportions and a more realistic fashion face, but not be so severe that you scare the kids. :| I'm personally wishing to see more realistic dolls---not necessarily just pretty fashionable looking ones, but even quirky realism is good...I long for a tragic doll....

[Shankula]

If we're going body-wise, they've already made male bodies with strung penises and squishy nipples...so I honestly don't know where else they'd go from there. The smaller dolls look like they're *finally* getting more elbow and knee mobility, doing the joints like the big dolls--now if someone would just fix the friggin heads so they had realistic mobility--I'm tired of snappy necks that you can't get to look sharply down or pose in any particularly expressive way.

[BlueSand09]

It could be more expensive and more complicated joints and bodies... Heads could be more realistic...

Maybe one day there will be a robot bjd... I mean there's a mechanical parts inside or it could talk and interact with the owner... Maybe japan or kore manufacturers might come up with a real "rozen maiden" like dolls... Possiblities are endless...^__^

But I'd rather want a standard doll rather that super special or super limited ones...

[Pirate Reine]

I really love the more realistic dolls like Iplehouse's new girls and Volks latest SD13 girl Cristal and their SD16 Amelia and Olivia. However I think the "anime" ish looking dolls may not be as popular or those type of features may become minimized.
I really hope the dolls don't start looking like fashion dolls though:(

[rattimoth]

hmm ..... where will it go... I think we are going to head to totally opposite ends of the spectrum, and that there may not be too much in the middle.. at one end will be the 'fashion doll' girls and realistic male sculpts, and I can see how these appeal to a wide range of people.. in fact, they both appeal to me, and I have already made some purchases in that area. This will include the many ethnic varieties that we are FINALLY starting to see.

At the other end will be the wonderful 'anime' type dolls, this is a market that I can see growing steadily, although maybe it won't have the rapid rise that other styles of BJD's have had.. it will continue to be a viable section though, and I, personally, would like ot see it go from strength to strength.

Another aspect that I believe we will see a lot more of will be the 'fantasy' creatures.. elves, demons, fae and similar. Elves have ALWAYS been very popular with BJD collectors, and I don't see that trend diminishing. In fact, I believe more manufacturers will cotton on and produce dolls that fill the need for non human humanoids.

Animals.. cute! no denying that.. I dont' think they will be much more than a niche market.. not to say that they aren't wonderfully done and very cute.. just that I think most people won't be looking for them as an introduction to the abjd world. I believe they will appeal more to collectors and owners who already have one or more dolls and want a believable prop or want to expand their collection in a slightly different direction (complete the family, as it were).

Vinyl.. I would like to think that there will be more vinyl dolls, they are affordable, and can be just as aesthetically pleasing as the resin, with the added advantage of being repairable and mostly colour fast.

Popularity.. well, I am one who feels that BJD's SHOULD be more popular and less exclusive. The more the merrier, and the greater the numbers and depth of penetration to the doll market, the more seriously we can expect to be taken as a branch of said market, and the more variety there will be in accessories (ever tried to buy shoes for some of the more obscure models?? or pants for an 80cm boy?). I doubt you will ever get wigs in wal mart on a regular basis, but it would be nice to see lines from some of the better manufacturers out there.

Ok. that was two cents worth of rambling.. thanks muchly if you stuck around this far.

Seek peace

Carol

[ShaDrouet]

I do see the BJD size to expand to even taller sized dolls then are out there right now.. with more mobility and more joints in fingers .. beyond that I can only wait and see

[ravendolls]

What I fear: More "fashion" dolls

What I hope for: EAR OPTIONS!

^_~
Raven

[april]

Lots of great predictions! It definitely makes me think...

As far as styles go, they seem to be diversifying. I think there will be more of whatever everyone wants. They can't all be anime-style because the market itself is diverse and to sell more dolls you just can't keep doing the same thing. There's only so many of one kind of doll people will want to buy. (Sometimes that's a pretty large amount, if the style happens to be very popular.) Some styles and dolls will be "classic" while others will last for brief moments and more different ones will appear in their place.

As someone said, this is primarily a boutique industry that can make quick changes to suit the market. That's a good thing.

As others have pointed out, there's the trend/fad element. Certain things grow to enough popularity that there's money to be made. If there's money, there's more business opening to feed the market and hope to make a living (no judgements here--most will truly have their hearts in creating what they do... but let's face it, if people can quit their jobs and concentrate on making dolls, that makes a difference!). Things grow--doll buyers and doll makers (and associated businesses). More competition creates lower prices, different technology, more diversity.

Of course, there's always the end of the fad. It's inevitable. They come and go. Barbies are a classic, so they'll always be around, but their collectibility and the number of them produced and the number of them purchased has it's ups and downs (maybe not the stock, low-end Barbie, but certainly the high-end ones). There was a big artist-doll boom (mostly porcelain, some vinyl) a while back, and that's died off a bit.

I don't know what will happen with the BJD market. I guess a number of the things people have already said... some companies will come and go. The numbers of BJD buyers will maybe peak and then settle or decline--or maybe split off into new markets (vinyls or various niche markets).

Anyway... short-term, sure, it'll be about styles... I wouldn't worry. I'm sure there will be something for pretty much everyone. They buyers always determine these things, really. If you want it, then vote with your buying power.

[marsh]

I'm not so sure I see the fashion doll trend as anything like a threat to the market. Volks has only the SD16 girl line that could be remotely described as fashion doll, and there are few other's - Cocori, the Model dolls, the Limwha girls - I'd actually put in that category. I think there's room in the market for them. They're hardly a virus and the SD16 girl body is both beautiful and well engineered. The Limwha girls, even with their quirks (thunder thighs), are as well. I have an Olivia with a non-default face-up and I never really thought of her as 'fashion doll'. Dunno. I'm kind of more disturbed by the Luts girl bad boob job body than any of the supposed 'fashion doll' bjds.

The trend towards ever bigger and ever smaller .. kind of disturbs me. It seems like the farther you get away from 1/4 and 1/3 scale, the more skewed the proportions are. I don't tend to find the 70 cm and above dolls aesthetically pleasing for this reason. Arms, legs and torsos seem stretched out and oddly stylized. Too thin. Too long. A few if the 64-67 cm dolls seem to achieved a decent proportion for their size, notably Jace and Omicron. To do this on an 80 cm doll, the thing would probably weigh ten pounds!

The tinies offered currently seem to have proportion issues too. I love my Kuuta, but his head is hugely oversized for his body. Go tinier than Yo-SD and Bambicrony and the proportions go even more out of whack.

Another trend to watch, I think, is the fantasy resin color dolls and fantasy species dolls. I'm not crazy about the centaurs and the tinies with unicorn and demon horns, but it's kind of exciting and creative to see them. Ditto the elf ears and vampire fangs, when they're done well. I'd really like to see some of the companies dabbling in alternate resin colors get the bugs worked out, because these dolls are very cool.

Ethnic sculpts and resin colors as an emerging trend has a long way to go and I think the market is ready for this kind of variety. I was kind of excited to see Volks offering a new doll with a distinctly African-American sculpt and resin color. I hope they follow Ruby with a male counterpart. I think/hope, they begin offering this option for FCS too.

The market has grown and it's pretty clear all of the companies have been pushed to explore other stylistic and engineering possibilities because there are so many companies producing quality dolls, all competing for a finite number of dollars. I think this is going to be great for the hobby and that we're going to be seeing creativity we can't even conceive of. It also seems that the various companies are lurking fan forums and actually paying attention to what collectors want, which is the best trend of all.

Oh, my aching wallet.

[lin]

More and more fashion doll fans are coming over to the dark side (lol), so it doesn't surprise me that even Volks is producing realistic dolls specifically aimed at that market. I don't think this should alarm anyone in the purist camp; by diversifying their doll options, Volks is continuing to provide high-end dolls that people want to buy. I don't think they will ever discontinue production of the "Asian aesthetic" dolls that made them popular.

I also don't have a problem with less expensive dolls from Korea, China, or anywhere else. Not everyone likes or can afford Volks dolls and I think there is plenty of room for low-end dolls as well as high-end. Most of my dolls are from Korea and I couldn't be more pleased with the quality. I think there is a market for even more diversity as far as ethnicity and fantasy colored dolls. I will never be the kind of collector who simply displays full set or one-off dolls, so the more variety there are to choose from, the better I will like it.

[redcountess]

I think we'll see more non-human and anthropormophic sculpts like Piposdoll Baha and Curo and robots/cyborgs like Soom's Sabik and Batchix's robot girl :) Also more companies working with independent artists like Bobobie working with Tinybear on Moona. Perhaps with the trend in fashion dolls and with Tonner having released Mini Mood (described as a BJD) as a convention special, we will also see a joint project between someone like Tonner and Volks.

[dollseye]

To be brief, I fear that ball-jointed dolls will end up being expensive resin fashion dolls.

Fashion dolls aren't bad, but they aren't the dolls that I've come to love in this hobby!

I agree with this comment. I think the manufacture of expensive resin ball jointed action figures will be on the increase too.

[Sameyu]

I just hope that the doll's resin chemistry changes or are enhanced with better materials; I'm sick of their yellowing.

[amythyst69]

To me the trend seems to be towards more realism in every aspect, larger dolls and more and more companies debuting all the time. I personally don't like the trend towards gigantic dolls. But I do like the realism and the expansion of companies - hopefully we will get more styles of bjd's as more non-asian countries start producing their own dolls. (Although I dislike the American ones I have seen so far!)

What I would like to see - better materials and quality control. It IS possible to produce dolls that don't turn crazy colors after a year. I think these companies need to invest in improving their materials or risk losing their customer base since there are so many new choices out there.

[Maverynthia]

First of all, in Japan there is no distinction between Doll and Action Figure (and puppets), they both use the term Ningyou from Hito (person, human (ningen), man) and Kata (shape, appearance). However they do have "figures (fi-gyu-a)" and those are the ones that sit on the shelf and collect dust (those resin hentai statues at anime cons for example).

Bring in the complaint that "I don't like to see Luts heads on cheap Chinese bodies" I think that's exactly where it's heading. No longer do Luts and Volks command a luxury right now, if anything they command a snobbery. "Oh that's a Volks? You paid too much for it!" That kind of thinking. While yes they are for luxury collectors, that's all they are for now since there are many more affordable sculpts out there people can choose from. They are no longer the ONLY market. Also, (So I've heard), dolls only take about $40 to produce for the price of the resin, add on maybe another $50 for clay and supplies they are certainly making hand over fist on profits. (Really it doesn't take that long to make a face sculpt if they are a professional) So it's going to come down to price, and yes BJD-ing is becoming (or already) a fad, thanks to the number of people that have them that go to anime cons and the Rozen Maiden anime (I can have my very on Shinku? (is that her name?)) it's was only a matter of time.

As for "cheap" Chinese companies I've found they are more ready to listen to the customer than the Korean and Japanese ones. You have DiM that does the MiniMees and I've heard people suggest things to Bobobie and have gotten a positive response. I bet if you went to Volks as asked "Can I have a custom sculpt" or "Can you make more elves" they'd thumb their noses and you and say "Buzz off gaijin!"

So in summary I have a feeling we'll be seeing more affordable dolls, and even maybe even some anime stores actually carrying some in stock.

As for upgrades, we have feel good Papilla Ryouma, and from what I hear...he's more of the curioso than something people actually buy to have. Though when they make better androids I'm sure we will be seeing the 1:1 Butler NeoRyouma with the feel good Everything! ^.^ (Or at least I can hope)
I've already see the translucent resin of Zircon Honey Dew (Thereapy KISS!..yeah yeah not remotely correct but...) so I think they are maybe going to get more gimmick-y.

I think one good progression is to have joint locks so they don't fall over and curl up into balls.

As for Fashion Doll VS ...uhm..whatever a BJD is supposed to be. I can't say as I don't have a clear definition of what a Fashion Doll is. (Unless you are comparing Fashion Doll like Barbie to Character Figure like...Hentai Honey, then I'd say that BJDs have always been fashion dolls...they certainly don't come with clothes often...then again they do look like Hentai Honey.. >.>)

[Agnes]

Also, (So I've heard), dolls only take about $40 to produce for the price of the resin, add on maybe another $50 for clay and supplies they are certainly making hand over fist on profits.

You forgot labor costs.

As loathe as we are to pay an artist a fair share for their hard work, they are doing something most of us are unable to do - sculpting a gorgeous doll. They deserve to be paid for that. Same for all the people working day and day out with what is essentially a highly toxic substance to breathe in. You will find cheaper labor costs in China than in Korea, and cheaper in Korea than in Japan. Then there are costs of running the websites, placing orders, mailing orders, etc. That's a huge chunk of cash not to count as business expenses. We don't know how much it really costs to make one of these things. (And btw, DiM is a Korean company; it just happens to have hired a Chinese studio to do the Mini mee project, but the communication is still run through Denny Kim.)

I have already seen one trend I don't like that is getting worse: the huge influx of products and collectors obliterating any comparative standards. When you have some people who are very critical of the quality of their dolls and items, and others who say, "why would you pay more than $10 for a shirt when you can pull it off this teddy bear!", I've found that I can not rely on the online hobby to give me accurate feedback on the quality of anything, unless I find someone with similar opinions. I also see more and more people get overwhelmed by the size of the hobby, all the products and dolls and companies. There's a disconnect forming where it no longer feels like an intimate setting where we all know our neighbors. We might see many more hardcore hobbyists sit back for a while waiting for the dust to settle; I know I feel like this lately. If you think the market is flooded with dolls now, wait until the flash in the pan is gone...

As far as doll and company trends, I think we'll get more specialized and niche dolls. Especially in the realm of fantasy/sci-fi themes. I really like what Soom does with their monthly dolls and sets. More things like hooves, horns, mermaid tails, fins, etc.

[CherryChansGifts]

I know this may be a bit random...but I would like BJDs to be 1:1 scale, you know...kind of like My Size Barbie...only better and much taller! ^_^ I would love to have a BJD that is my size. *smiles at the thought of having a Gambit Dolly that is my size* But that's just my thoughts. ^_^

[asecondbreath]

I haven't been in the hobby that long, but judging from what I've seen in the short time I have been involved, there definitely seems to be some kind of a contest to see which company can produce the best posing standard. This is a GOOD thing.

[cutup01]

I believe that each companies will gradually lose their own color..... Volks already lost its color- or did it have one? Luts did lost after the complication with fairyland. Then again its not really company speciality but sculptor's style. And I hope more optional parts and well jointed body !

[Blizzard]

Just my little prediction here:

1) Articulation and possability with continue to get better while prices will start to come down for more companies.

2) Every day it seems a new company pops up, this won't last, some with either go out of business or perhaps be bought out by others.

3) As BJDs continue to grow in popularity many companies will need to adapt to growing demand by expanding, stepping up production times and shorten turn around time... Fortunately this growth seems to be a consistant one, rather than an over night thing and hopefully will allow businesses to continue to grow without suffering quality control issues.

4) Doll Emporiums are going to find that the old method of essentially just doing huge GOs and pocketing the savings as business as usual will not be as acceptable as it has been; several retailers have begun having stock on hand(Some have now for years).

[pbrennan42]

More BJD's will start sharing aesthetics with more realistic fashion dolls but to my mind they will still be BJDs rather than Fashion Dolls per sae - I know many will disagree with me on that but as far as I am concerned if it is made in Asia and has ball joints then it is an ABJD - and even though many will disagree with me I would count Obitsu and Volks within that classification. Same with certain DollMore dolls (Glamour Sara). Because they do a BJD version and a Fashion Doll version of the same sculpt I find it stupid to discount the BJD version of Glamour Sara from the BJD list. YMMV.

I think with being too narrow on definitions one is in danger of alienating the newcomers into the hobby as it can give us a somewhat snooty appearance. There are people I have come across online that I have thought "hmmm good job you live many miles from me coz I would never willingly associate with someone with your attitudes." Yes, I am beginning to find some within the community rude and with the social graces of a hedgehog eating a slug.

/rant

Back on topic.

I see the styles of dolls that the likes of Obitsu and Volks and DollMore and other making diverging from what is traditionally viewed as ABJDs and I don't see that as a bad thing in any way shape or form - I see it as these companies reading the market and trying to make their products attractive to a wider audience, which is both their right and good business practice. If you stay still for too long in niche businesses you run the risk of being left behind and even going bust. At the end of the day the bottom line is what counts for these companies no matter how much they (or their fans) love their older products. These guys still have to pay their bills and eat after all.

I seriously believe that what we refer to as true ABJDs is gonna be the niche area of the hobby even more so than before. The likes of Soom and Luts will not stop producing "ABJDs", but they will diversify a lot more and do very high quality fashion dolls and the such like, especially now that they have competition from Korea and China. They have to evolve and change to survive, and fashion dolls are far more marketable than ABJDs. For every ABJD you can sell you can sell fifty times the amount of fashion dolls if not more.

So don't be surprised if established BJD companies start doing fashion dolls more and more over the coming years, and start keeping ABJDs as annual or quarterly releases. It is within the Fashion Doll community that the real money is to be made.

I think Dollmore has it about right - have a range of traditional ABJDs then start doing more and more fashion dolls in various scales.

My one prediction for the year is that before the turn of 2011 either Luts or Soom will be doing the same.

Phil.

[russellbaby]

Soom doing fashion dolls? I hope not! I think that the way they handle the monthly sales is progressive. Others have followed. This small run trend will continue. I hope that more American artists get into the mix.
Fashion dolls will always have their place because they come from traditional doll collecting. Older collectors find them easier to relate to then BJDs. This naturally gives them a marketing edge. These older doll collectors have been around a long time.
BJDs will only keep their unique style as long as those that collect them lean that way. Once the currently active BJD owners get bored or married or whatever will drive them away from their BJDs (even temporarily) the hobby will change. It will happen. But it is a long way off. BJD collecting still hasn't become mainstream in the US (once you find them at Target the hobby is officially dead).
It happened with Steiff bears. They did themselves in. They flooded the market with toys, the bear artists popped up everywhere overnight and soon the hobby died.
As long as the BJDs are difficult to get, kinda an underground thing, they are safe and will continue to grow.

Just my opinion though.

[timid]

Actually, in some of the dolls and clothes being produced lately, I see hints of a . . . backlash is too strong, but a balancing move away from the more "realistic" and more poseable. Not industry-wide, but I've just seen some stuff that hasn't been around for a while. And Charlotte and Lieselotte from Volks are much more the original ABJD style, and got quite a strong response, I thought. While more fashion-doll types will likely be around, I think there are creators and collectors alike who are starting to dig their heels in a little.

It's really hard to measure or predict in this hobby, though, because what sells best/gets popular in North America might not be what sells in Japan or South Korea or Europe . . .

[Bandwidth Broad]

Be careful when you assume that the "older" collectors prefer fashion dolls. I think perhaps the younger members don't realize that the hobby was largely the domain of those "older" collectors until fairly recently. Volks first introduced abjds in something like 1999. When I found out about them in early 2003, there really weren't many options for getting the dolls in the USA -- we pretty much had to go through a few people who offered buying services as a part time thing, and through Crescent (Masamichi). If/when we were able to buy direct, we had to send wires. Acquiring these dolls was expensive, never mind the price of the dolls themselves. The companies in play at that time were Volks, Luts (Cerberus), and Serendipity (not sure whether they're still active). There may have been one or two more shortly after but, really, our choices were extremely limited. In spite of that, we were fascinated -- and it was the industry of those before my early generation of collectors, some of who went to Japan and brought the dolls back from places like Anime cons, that paved the way for the rest of you.

timid, there is great truth in what you say. There are trends in everything collectible. There is bound to be plenty of whatever each of us wants to collect and, if whatever that is isn't immediately available, if we wait long enough, it's bound to come around again.

[cydril]

I think as abjd's are becoming more popular all around the world, there will be more 'ethnic' looking models (which is awesome). We have already seen an increase in darker skin tones.

One thing I am surprised more companies don't do is expression faceplates/heads. Usually for a mold there is only one face, and maybe a sleeping version. I think, especially with the faceplate system, it would be fun and practical to have five or six different facial expressions you could interchange.

[Vito]

Fantasy elements! I love what SOOM does with the Monthly dolls, and I just hope that they get cooler and prettier and continue on forever.

[sunshinejade]

It is cool to read this thread that was started in 2007 and to see what is happening in the bjd industry in 2011.

[Umber the Kid]

Maybe there will be a chance meeting of the minds of the leaders in robotics and the leaders in the resin industries and we'll end up with highly customizable dollies that can move and have AI? Real-life persocoms!

I'd be the first in line for one, honestly.

[Cheebee]

Robots!

...what? I can't be the only one who's read Angelic Layer and daydreamed. :p


Haha oh my goodness, right after I discovered BJDs I re-watched Angelic Layer and had a fit. I literally jumped up, pointed at the computer and yelled "This is why they look so familiar!" Freaked my bf out hehe :oops

I'm hoping that the BJD market stays much the same as it is now. There are a ton of options that fulfill a need for almost every person in the hobby. Dolls that pose and photograph well, semi-fashion dolls, and even anime-like dolls. It's totally diverse and I love it.